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一 |     On a balmy summer day in mid-August of 2021, the 20-year US-led nation-building project in Afghanistan came to an abrupt end. Following a 10-day blitzkrieg offensive in which the Taliban* captured 32 of the country’s 34 provinces with little resistance, the militants encircled and then entered Kabul and caused its government to flee, all while US and coalition forces, diplomats, and intelligence agents were still evacuating.,Afghanistan has been mired in foreign-backed civil conflict for generations, with the US-led invasion of the country in 2001 ensuing 23 years after the CIA kicked off Operation Cyclone - a covert action involving the deployment of jihadist fighters and tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and cash to Afghanistan to fight a fledgling Soviet-backed government.,“We have to look at the history – the United States created the Afghan mujahedeen against the Soviet Union, when the Soviet Union came to help Afghanistan…That Islamic fundamentalism which includes Taliban, Mujahideen, ISIS [Daesh]** and others was created by the West,” says Dr. Zalmay Gulzad, a specialist on Afghan politics and professor of social sciences at Harold Washington College in Chicago.,WorldA Tale of Two Withdrawals: Why Soviet and US Pull-Outs From Afghanistan Were So Different18 August 2021, 04:00 GMT,In the mid-1990s, a few years after the end of the Cold War, Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter, boasted that the overarching goal of the US project in Afghanistan was to “make the Soviets bleed for as much and as long as is possible,” and to coordinate with the intelligence services from the UK, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries to make this happen.,Over four decades on, this strategy remains central to Washington’s calculations, Dr. Gulzad says, comparing US attempts to now use the Taliban to stir up trouble along Russia’s soft underbelly in Central Asia to the NATO proxy conflict against Moscow in Ukraine. Iran is another major target of US geopolitical ambitions, and Washington would like to play on the differences between the Sunni Taliban and the Shia Iranian state to “create problems” for the Islamic Republic, the academic argues.,Taliban Promise Safety for Resistance Leaders Including Ahmad Massoud as They Meet in Tehran10 January, 13:57 GMT,Graveyard of Empires,Brown University’s Costs of War project has calculated that the War in Afghanistan cost the United States alone more than $2.3 trillion, equivalent to $300 million per day for nearly 20 straight years. Notwithstanding the extravagant spending, and the rotational deployment of over 800,000 US troops and tens of thousands of personnel from over three dozen allied nations over the past generation, the Afghanistan project, once described by Harvard academic and chickenhawk Michael Ignatieff as a “humanitarian” “nation-building lite” adventure, has failed spectacularly.,The causes are legion, ranging from the pervasive corruption of Afghanistan’s political institutions and security structures (whose true fragility was demonstrated in August 2021), to the coalition’s tolerance for and even cooperation with unsavory warlords, drug traffickers, and even child sex criminals, and the imperious nature of the Western-backed project itself.,“It was a lost battle from the beginning,” says Dr. Swasti Rao, an associate fellow at the Europe and Eurasia Center at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.,US 'Lost Track' of Afghan War Aims, Says Retired Marine General12 August, 17:00 GMT,“One of the problems with the US is that it wishes to see the entire world in its own mirror image, what is called the liberal world order comprising of free market and democracy. This approach has a problem when enforced top down without taking account the regional and grassroots realities, cultural sensibilities of the people at hand. The government of Ashraf Ghani was never a popular government with massive charges of corruption that the Afghan people did not identify with,” Rao explains.,The researcher noted that all around the world, but in West Asia in particular, the “project of the liberal order of which the US considers itself a custodian” has met with failure.,“After 20 years, about $2.5 trillion and the lives of its citizens and soldiers, the US realized that retreating is the best possible decision, something they had been planning for a long time,” Rao says.,Challenges, Opportunities,A year on from Kabul’s fall, the situation in Afghanistan is unstable, unpredictable, and dangerous, both for ordinary Afghans and for countries in the region.,“After one year of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover, it is Afghans who are suffering more than any other regional or extra-regional states,” says Shreyas Deshmukh, a researcher with the National Security Program at Delhi Policy Group, an India-based think tank.,“Now it is evident that the Taliban has not given up its extremist tendencies and will continue to stick with its interpretation of the extremist Sharia-based governance model. They do not have any concrete ideas to govern the state because [the Taliban] is a primarily insurgent organization. Therefore, anti-social elements including other terrorist organizations, drug lords, and human traffickers [have been] taking advantage of this vacuum. During the initial months after the Taliban takeover, the level of violence was reduced but now there is an uptick, as anti-Taliban forces are regrouping,” Deshmukh notes.,AfghanistanTaliban Militants Fire Into Air to Disperse Women's Protest in Kabul - Videos13 August, 07:44 GMT,The researcher points to an important dilemma for the Taliban: whether to make concessions on its governance model in exchange for cooperation with, assistance from, and possible recognition from other countries. Such a decision, Deshmukh notes, would carry with it the risk of heightening divisions within the Taliban’s ranks and even raise the possibility of their government’s collapse and renewed civil war. “On the contrary, if they implement a strict interpretation of Sharia law while going against international norms then the country will once again become a haven for terrorist organizations,” he warns.,Dr. Rao concurs with this pessimistic appraisal of Afghanistan’s internal situation, noting that while the Taliban proved capable of taking over from the Western-backed government, “they do not know how to engage in governance per se, let alone [create an] inclusive government with minorities and women. It’s been a year of denial of women’s rights, media crackdown, and retaliatory killings amid mass hunger. Especially with the Taliban bringing back the feared Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, enforcing the group’s austere interpretation of Islam, it is more unlikely that women or minorities might have a say in the government any time in the foreseeable future,” he says.,Worse yet, Rao says, if the situation continues to fester, it will cause “even more unrest, drugs and illegal weapons smuggling, bloody fights between various fundamentalist groups like ISIS-K and the Taliban; in short a situation that will remain a regional security [concern] with uncontrolled global ramifications.”,The scholar emphasizes that the international community has asked the Taliban to form an inclusive government, ensure the rights of women and minorities, and guarantee that Afghanistan will no longer serve as a launch pad for global terror operations. “Unless that happens, the trade or investment promised by China will not flow. It is important to note that even Russia and China, which share a better equation with the Taliban compared to the Western world, have not recognized their government,” Rao believes.,WorldLithium, Gold & Rare Earths: How China May Open the Door to New Business Opportunities for Afghans19 August 2021, 08:38 GMT,At the same time, the researcher notes that although the US withdrawal exacerbated regional chaos, landed sophisticated weapons in Taliban hands, and created a regional power vacuum, it also “created space for countries like Russia, China and Iran to play a far more decisive role in the region,” as Washington shifted its attention to Eastern Europe and China.,Deshmukh concurs. “The Taliban is not a designated terrorist organization by many states including the US. However, its leadership is under UNSC and US sanctions. The real question is, will the countries recognize the Taliban regime in the near future? China, Pakistan, Russia, and Qatar have given some signals that they might recognize the regime. However, it remains a risky business considering that the Taliban is continuing close cooperation with terrorist organizations like AQ, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Many of their leaders have taken safe haven in Afghanistan.”,“No country would like to align itself with this regime and recognize them, for now. Meanwhile, they will continue to engage with the Taliban to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghans, keep a tab on terrorist elements which could threaten the national interest of those countries, and further to reap some economic benefits from Afghanistan,” Deshmukh concludes.,* A group under United Nations sanctions for terrorist activities.,** A terrorist group outlawed in Russia and many other countries.。    截至15日19时30分，全省共有50座大中型水库超汛限水位记者15日从省气象台获悉，当天中午开始，我省雷阵雨天气呈现“多点爆发”之势，各地强降水此起彼伏，局部雨势尤为猛烈。截至当天17时，全省气象预警信号仍在持续“刷屏”中，共有100余条预警高挂。其中，三门、温州、瑞安、乐清、永嘉等多地已拉响最高级别的暴雨红色预警。据统计，15日12时至15时，杭州、台州、温州北部、宁波南部等地出现短时暴雨，累计雨量最大为台州市路桥区机场站113.8毫米，小时雨强88.2毫米。

二 | 16日，强降雨带东移南压，浙南和沿海地区将成为降雨“主战场”，阴有阵雨或雷雨，部分大到暴雨，局地大暴雨。饱受雨水困扰的浙北地区迎来喘息之机，16日阴有阵雨，夜里起转为多云。17日，天气格局迎来转折，但东南沿海地区仍不可松懈——阴有阵雨或雷雨，局部暴雨；其他地区则以多云为主，午后仅有分散性阵雨或雷雨。此外，记者从省水利厅了解到，受8月13日以来局地强降雨影响，当前我省江河湖库水位普遍较高，特别是杭嘉湖地区河网高水位运行已持续较长时间，薄弱堤段出现风险的可能性较高。

三 | 截至15日19时30分，我省共有50座大中型水库超汛限水位，其中大型水库18座，中型水库32座，主要集中在台州、杭州、绍兴和湖州；江河水位方面，截至当天19时30分，全省共有32个江河站的水位超警戒水位，其中23个超保证水位，主要集中在湖州、嘉兴和杭州。省水文管理中心分析，预计15日至17日，杭嘉湖嘉兴站高水位波动，超保证水位0.4至0.55米；东苕溪流域主要控制站出峰回落。水位上涨，我省多地拉响洪水警报。

四 | 当天18时，省水利厅和省气象局联合发布山洪灾害预警，预计15日20时至16日20时，象山县、宁海县、永嘉县、三门县、仙居县、临海市发生山洪灾害可能性大（橙色预警），平阳县、苍南县、文成县、泰顺县、乐清市、新昌县、嵊州市、黄岩区、天台县、青田县发生山洪灾害可能性较大（黄色预警），奉化区、鹿城区、龙湾区、瓯海区、瑞安市、诸暨市、磐安县、东阳市、温岭市、莲都区、缙云县、景宁畲族自治县可能发生山洪灾害（蓝色预警）。省水利厅要求，各地水利部门要重点对辖区内高水位运行堤防和低标堤防开展拉网式巡查，强化水库山塘巡查检查，切实做好工程抢险准备和应急处置，确保做到险情早发现、早报告、早处置。

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